135BGW Blog – Three Horsemen Two Ponies, Everything Beyond the Facts

Revised May 10, 2024

This is a companion blog to 135AGW, which summarizes my facts about GW/CC.

This part is everything beyond the facts. It’s the bigger picture, the social / political / survival setting for GW/CC. With some of the passion, “beliefs”, opinions, emotions, nonsense, and inter-personal pitfalls.

The bottom line: We are in the race of our lives. The Three Horsemen are well out in front. Followed by Two Ponies. In the back of the pack, progressively falling behind, are Human Decency and Altruism. Wait a minute, Altruism has just gone lame. And Human Decency is getting tangled up in the mess, now faltering towards the rail on the last corner. Where angry fingers hover over big red buttons.

Why fuss though? It’s not going to change anything. Just enjoy our everything. But aware of ourselves. That’s what this is about: an essay on Mindfulness. Who are we? What are we doing?

Let’s begin with some nostalgia.

Preamble

Some of us started out with ideals. I got snipped after two kids. The good life happened, and ideals got diluted, lost. Now, near the end of our treadmill, I am awake again. Wondering again about those ideals.

Some of us are uneasy. We want to leave a good inheritance to those little darlings coming behind us. Yet their inheritance from us includes messes: environmental, social, dwindling natural resources. Some of us have regrets, but that does not stop us from continuing to want it all. Human nature.

The Three Horsemen

Along the track, I realized GW/CC does not stand in isolation. It’s inter-twinned with two other seemingly unsolvable problems, bigger planetary objects:

·        Growing lack of goodwill and human decency.

·        Sustainability.  WE ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE. Mother Nature’s cookie jar of concentrated materials is going down fast.

These two bigger problems, along with GW/CC, have become my ‘Three Horsemen’. Riding down that road paved with good intentions.

And trailing along behind, two ponies:

·        our compromised global environment

·        declining biodiversity (including over-fishing), and

We have a big pusher driving this train down the track => overpopulation. Overpopulation is the root cause. The click-clack. Like the waves crashing on the beach. It never stops. There are too many of us on this globe. What we are doing is not sustainable, we are emptying the cookie jar and shoving on each other.

Our ingrained human nature de-equips us from solving even simple societal problems. We are bogged down by infighting. There is no way we are up to dealing with any of The Three Horsemen, let alone GW/CC itself. Despite an ever-increasing slog, we will ride the train through the fog to the inevitable cliff. Where The Three Horsemen will step aside, to live for another day, while we just keep going, taking our good life over the cliff with us.

I am focusing on GW/CC here, because it is what I know well. My truth, as I understand it. My brain is too small, too compartmentalized to do justice to the other two Horsemen and the two ponies. And I don’t know how to talk about over-population. Human nature bewilders me. But we will muse a bit anyway.

I am doing this, like this, right now, because I sense that I do not have much time left to say what I want to say. Various reasons:

·        Complex problems require serious work to understand beyond the superficial, to get past the opinions. When I do stuff, I like to do it right. The ongoing energy needed to dive deep is getting harder to come by.

·        Misinformation and nonsense never stop. Whack a Mole is a tedious game. “Why are they still saying that?”, I am thinking.

·        Things seem to be getting worse, with fewer bright spots to sustain optimism.

·        These problems are collective, with a life of their own, way beyond what anyone (who cares) can do to change anything. With meaning beyond ourselves.

·        We are getting angrier. Nastier politics. More me and less us.

·        I am discouraged by the human condition. That which makes us do what we do, even though we know better.

I am summarizing what I see, while I still have enough caring energy.

I am not a futurist. All I do is assume the future will be an extrapolation of where we are now and how we are going along the path now.

I hope I am wrong about the future. Wrong about us.

At the end of the day, I reckon Ken Elmore is on the right track. He is focused on our sustainability => NOT AT ALL. He reckons we are headed for the edge of the cliff. Eyes wide open but we will not help ourselves. Because we are too vested in our comfortable lifestyle. He is eating popcorn, watching the train roll by.

I have become skeptical of the human condition, cynical. My past illusions of the common good are gone. Seeing essentially none of the collective will that is needed to grab the brakes. We are not even looking to see if there are any brakes on this thing. The train no longer stops at places we imagined were real. The politicians we thought were running the train are part of our fairy tale. We are headed for “The End of the Line.” (Travelling Willburies).

Might as well relax and enjoy the ride.

Can we start this conversation by being honest? For a moment. Just with ourselves. I can tell you this: I am on that train, which I had a miniscule part in creating. Nobody notices poky me; I am not that important. But there / here I am. And I am mindful of all that.

I started these two companion blogs in Nambucca Heads, half-way down the east coast of Australia. A beautiful, quiet, easy beach town.  The day Mary Apps sent me this:

“A recent poll of 14 to 30 year olds found that all the issues and fallout from climate change and global warming were those that concerned and upset them. Canada, USA, Australia, and New Zealand were polled in that one. The subject was actually about happiness.”

It motivated me to get back on my wagon and say some things which have been fermenting in my mind. This, herein, is my own thought, some of it about truth seeking, and the human predicament, for what that’s worth.

I am going to wander through seven things:

·        Our real problems Sustainability, human decency.

·        Truth seeking

·        Why young people think what they do.

·        What I hear / understand from those around me and out there.

·        The futility of it all. We are what we are. And that ain’t gonna change.

·        The main technology to do something significant (if we want) => nuclear power. Yes, there are other valid technologies, but I see nuclear as the best fit.

·        Carbon taxes in Canada.

At this point, I am disillusioned. Lots of talk, little action. Nothing’s going to happen, that matters, in time. I have become a spectator. Observing the science, the data, and us. We, us, aren’t looking that great, I reckon. Vic thinks we are even worse than that.

While wrestling with the science and the data is interesting to me, it’s people that intrigue me most. What they think, why they think that way. How they respond to, and engage, controversy. Are they biased by political leanings? Where do they get their information? Who do they trust, and why?  Do they care about the truth? Are they open, or stubbornly closed? Are they equipped to do any of their own work? And most importantly, do they work to own what they are saying? We are the most fascinating part of GW/CC.

Some frequent conversations (over the last few years) with Glenn Weston, Vic Shantora and Ken Elmore have shoved me along, to think more, to clarify. Glenn and Vic are my bookends. Vic a passionate environmentalist, edgy, annoyed at our do-nothings. Glenn a seeking eternal optimist: new technology will come along, and we will find our way through. Ken is quietly in the middle.

Mary Apps took a continuing interest in this and gave me some good observations of everyday people.

The first appendix contains some conversations between Vic and me, off on a siding. He has some interesting things to say, worth thinking about. Especially where we disagree somewhat.

Our Real Problems

I think young people, most people, are looking at an oncoming bus. They don’t see the train coming from the side. On that train, the two other things that will do us in first and more completely:

·        Lack of sufficient resources to continue to support our ever-increasing consumption. Simply, our lifestyle is not sustainable. We are taking the cookie jar down fast. Think trouble within 50 years. More on this later.

·        Lack of goodwill and human decency. Wars between countries. World spending on armaments set another record high this year. Generally, I see a trend to focus more on ourselves, with less care and respect for others, especially others who are not our kind. Avoiding our own responsibilities by blaming others. Hate is multiplying and being excused. Think the next few decades. The cracks have appeared and are widening. Mass migration is becoming a fact of life AND it makes us uncomfortable.

These two things ARE worth worrying about.

Mary Apps pointed out that these two things fit together with GW/CC. In there also, the three ponies. There are commonalities, overlaps. What is at the centre, in the overlap of the Three Horsemen and the three ponies? => Our main human weakness: Fear.

Fear of what? Lots of possibilities:

·        Fear that migrants are bad people that will contaminate our lifestyle.

·        Fear of the unknown, the unpredictable.

·        Fear of the consequences if something is indeed true.

·        Fear of losing control of one’s money, both at both a personal level and a governmental level.

·        Fear of being called upon to do some work.

·        Fear of taking some responsibility.

·        Fear of being seen to be wrong, after being adamant of being right for so long => Intellectual ego.

·        Fear of change itself, in most forms.

And most importantly, fear of the vulnerability of love, when letting go of hate leaves us emotionally naked and defenceless. Within that, fear that there is not enough love to go around.

Wherever we are going, GW/CC is going to be an uncomfortable, annoying, nuisance along the way. Not just temporary, a permanent nuisance. That is worth some thinking, I reckon.

Sustainability

Ken Elmore spends a lot of time looking at information and data about the sustainability of our lifestyle.

“The way I looks at it, humans lived a sustainable existence before the agricultural revolution, with a global population of some five million. Agriculture only became energetically viable for humans as the last ice age receded, temperatures rose, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased considerably. Meanwhile, the world population is now at about 70 million and continues to increase. When the next glaciation comes, we will be back to the hunter-gatherer mode, if any homo sapiens still exist.”

I talk with people who believe technology will save us.

Agricultural practices are constantly improving allowing more food production from the same amount of land. But our agriculture today is based on big machinery which takes energy and natural resources to create and on-going energy to run. There is a heavy reliance on chemicals (fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides) which are formed from natural resources, using energy. For example, phosphate, crucial to industrial agriculture, will be all gone in 50 to 100 years. at the current rate of consumption. Eventually, the required energy and natural resources will be harder to come by and eventually run out. The cookie jar will be empty. This is inevitable, it’s just a question of when.

Copper is crucial to an electrified human lifestyle. It is becoming increasingly challenging to obtain. Deep ore bodies being developed these days have a copper content lower than the waste from copper mines a generation ago.

Fossil fuels are a limited resource. It is predicted we will run out of fossil fuels by the end of this century, 75 years from now.

Its not just energy and minerals. Also, water. Aquifer levels are decreasing in most of the agricultural areas of the world. In central California, 600 feet deep irrigation wells have lost their supply and trucking water is becoming common.

Technology consumes energy and natural resources. That’s what we do well => consume. Like tomorrow will be even better than today.

What will our grandchildren do?

Some people are optimistic that technology will get us through. Here’s what Glenn thinks:

“Hopefully our great grandkids will have largely transitioned to renewables, with energy storage, and nuclear, by the time fossil fuels run out. And hopefully their great grandkids will have commercial fusion by the time the uranium runs out. What do you think the chances are that they will adapt successfully, and all the pieces fall into place?”

As we see later under Nuclear Power, the current uranium reserves are not big enough for this.

Truth Seeking

Most of you know and understand what I am up to here. I have had a long journey with GW/CC. I started out ‘believing’ global warming was real and happening. I say ‘believing’ because that’s all it can be when you have not done the work to allow you to ‘know’. I went in with a curious mind, wanting to come to know the truth.

Appendix 2 starts with an important story. My interaction with a friend. This personal story is there for three reasons:

·        First, it discusses my early trajectory, my flip-flop-flip. Initially ‘believing’ in GW. Then being sucked into ‘believing’ it was not happening. And finally, the long road of work to come to ‘know’ that it is happening. That road was best travelled alone, without distractions.

·        Second, it illustrates the tension that can get set up between two good, intelligent people, when there is passion on both sides, and especially when the work is mostly on one side. How erosive and divisive that becomes.

·        Third, it provides a focus to consider. What’s important? Our passions, or our people? How can we navigate, while being true to ourselves?

You will keep seeing the word ‘work’. It turns ‘opinions’ and ‘beliefs’ into something we ‘know’ for ourselves. Something real, not borrowed. Without the work, it’s mostly bubbles in cartoons.

Nobody is ‘immoral’, just because they do not agree with you. And nobody is stupid, we are all smart enough.

(Smart enough) + (work) => the truth.

I expand truth seeking in Appendix 2.

Young People / Old People

Just the other day, I had a conversation with an eleven-year-old boy about GW. About 20 minutes, with very good statements by him. Some good answers to my shit-disturbing questions. He has a good grip on the basics. From his schoolteachers. And talking with his father, who comes from Quebec. My expectations of adults have just gone up.

I have some recent-years experience with 18 to say 24-year-olds from my four courses at UBC. Taken full-on for marks, with assignments and exams. Interacting with others in the classes. I had a sense that most of them came to UBC with minds already formed: they were doomed by impending global warming and climate change. Even though essentially all of them were unaware of most of the details, concepts, and facts. They were focused on the contents of their courses and fervent about getting good marks. Except for a few of the brighter sparks, there was little apparent appetite for digging into anything peripheral, even though it was an important part of the overall picture. It was like they came pre-programmed. Pre-focused.

How does this happen? I expect listening to their high school teachers and the media. Perhaps shaped by alarming generalities, without the objective supporting details. Given opinions, not real knowledge. And their parents, what would they know?

In one of the courses, we covered consumerism briefly, a few weeks before Christmas. I talked in class about folks my age being bewildered by all the presents kids get these days, and a bit horrified by the ripped wrapping paper strewn all over the floor. They were shocked.

Many of the students in my classes were living at home. Driving back and forth to campus in single occupancy vehicles. Few bus riders.

A few times in class, I stated that all of us are talking / walking contradictions. We talk concern, but do not ‘do’ our concern. More shock.

Are they any different than older folks? Lots of talking / walking contradictions here too. Look no further than me.

Where do older folks get their information and how do they form their beliefs? Some rely on the media. Others follow internet-based tribal information threads that resonate with their inherent biases; they like what they want to believe and keep going back to the same watering hole. Few people read textbooks and peer-reviewed scientific journals. And even less do their own work, particularly their own calculations.

Global warming and climate change is a big world, with lots of complexities. Uncertainties and hidden corners. Even a simple concept like sea level rise has many peer-reviewed technical papers, some 20 pages long, with ten contributing authors from universities and government agencies all over the world. It takes perverse determination to do deep dives for the truth.

As Glenn points out, peer review helps to ensure the accuracy of what gets published, but if there is bias in the peer review of proposals for funding and a bias in publishing, then you may not get a complete and balanced picture. Information sources and examples of lousy peer review are discussed more in Appendix 3.

Add in the quasi-techos who think they know much better, specializing in finding fault.

And then there are people who run on strong opinions, skating fast on thin ice, oblivious to the cracking behind them.

Plus, the media, who need headlines and followers. Things get sensationalized, exaggerated. Both left wing media and right wing.

Where is the truth in all that? Some of us think we know.

What if we are wrong?

Say you are a fervent environmentalist and want governments, companies, and individuals to spend more money than they can afford. And it turns out it’s not such a big issue after all. Money gone that could have been used for other good things. Or people could have kept more of their money and had a better life.

Say you are a contrarian. Maybe you believe there is no problem. Or maybe you can see there might be a problem but want to keep your money for yourself. And it turns out you are wrong. You have thrown your kids and your grandkids under your bus.

There is a huge information gap about global warming. If that gap could be filled with truthful knowledge, some of the hyperbole and hype would be taken away. This should reduce anxiety. Especially among young people.

People Around Me

“Oh, it’s just weather”.

There are several natural climate cycles. All of them move heat around the globe, as well as into and out of the ocean. None of them generate heat. Only the sun and the greenhouse generate heat. The most significant natural climate cycle is ENSO, with three phases of The Walker Cycle which operates over the Pacific Ocean, centred on the Equator: La Nina, Neutral and El Nino. La Nina tends to reduce the heat that gets buried in the ocean, while El Nino tends to increase heat burial. The global average temperature has continued to trend upwards through several of these cycles. The greenhouse is running the overall show. The natural climate cycles are side-shows, momentary add-ons and take-aways to the big show.

“Why should we do anything when Canada’s CO₂ emissions are only 1% of the global total. Its China, India, the USA. China’s state-run coal production now accounts for 26% of global CO₂ emissions, on its own.”

And

“What can I do? 80% of global CO₂emissions come from just 57 companies, mostly state-owned electricity companies and fossil fuel companies.”

I am a personal responsibility guy. The overall result is the sum of what we do as individuals. On a CO₂ per capita basis, Canada is 4^th in the world, behind Quatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The USA is right behind Canada. Australia is not in the top ten. China and India are low on the list on a per capita basis.

Here we are, lined up at Mother Natures trough. Still with more than we can eat. Lots of spillage and stuff dropping out behind us. Too busy eating to clean up our own mess.

This kind of China talk seeks to excuse us from ourselves. We are OK; they are the bad ones. Let’s blame them for us, as well as them.

In my recent disillusionment, realizing that little will be done, I have become a don’t care, do-little. I am mindful of the wake from my canoe, but no longer very much inclined to do anything meaningful about it. Not willing to take a hit to my lifestyle. Nonetheless, this needs to be recognized for what it is. Sluffing my mess off onto others, who do still care.

‘Its not CO₂”

Often heard. “Look at this graph. Historical data on CO₂ and temperature over the last 400,000 years are not well correlated. Going into an ice age, temperature fall first and then CO₂ falls about 800 years later. And coming out of an ice age, CO₂ is not well out in front of the temperature. Look, CO₂ does not cause warming.”

This combo graph covers several ice ages. Temperatures dropping into a freeze and coming out of a thaw.  In this graph, time moves forward going to the right.

In this graph, temperature and CO₂ are reasonably correlated coming out of ice ages. But going into ice ages, the temperature noticeably precedes the CO₂.

I puzzled over this one for years. Until my UBC geology professor put me onto a thorough peer-reviewed paper. 

This graph is based on CO₂ samples taken from Antarctic ice cores. The same ice cores were used to date the CO₂ samples. Markers were used to establish the temperatures, but the temperatures are those in Antarctica at that time.

What we really need for a meaningful comparison is global-average CO₂ concentration versus global-average temperature. Due to good atmospheric mixing, CO₂ concentrations are similar all over the world within a year. So, the CO₂ concentrations measured in the Antarctic ice cores can be taken as the same as the global-average CO₂ concentration at that time. How about the estimated temperatures though? That graph is based on the temperatures local to Antarctica. Are those local temperature trends representative of the global-average temperature trends. The answer to that, is NO, not always.

The important finding in the work reported in that technical paper is that going into an ice age and coming out, the local temperatures in Antarctica precede the global average temperature by about 800 years. On an ice ages scale, temperatures move in Antarctica before they move globally. So, to compare the global CO₂ concentration with the global-average temperature, the temperature line in that combo graph must be moved backward in time by about 800 years. When that is done, the CO₂ line falls essentially on the global average temperature line. The temperature no longer precedes the CO₂. Global-average CO₂ is correlated to global average temperature, consistent with the science.

Eight hundred years is also the approximate cycle time for the Great Conveyor Belt of Ocean Currents. Likely not just a coincidence.

The graph, as originally presented in the literature, is a misleading illusion. Still held onto tightly by many who do not accept the reality of global warming. For them its all fabricated.

“Forest fires are scaring us”

Here is a reality, from British Columbia. “I live on the edge of a huge forest. I used to take my safety for granted. Not anymore. Things can light up and move very quickly. I have started to think out my escape.” Something few people living urban eastern Canada have much appreciation for. Just another hype on the left-wing news.

“The climate models are all wrong”.

I do not know much about climate models. But I do know enough (from my own modelling of chemical processes) to allow me to smile quietly while I listen to some people making disparaging remarks about climate models. Almost always, these people have zero experience with modelling, yet quick with hard critical opinions.

Some of the people that fixate on the possible inaccuracy of climate models extrapolate their thinking to conclude that if the models are wrong, then all the climate change stuff must be wrong. That’s what they want to believe anyway and there it is. Just like that. No work required.

I don’t need to know about climate models. Seldom look at them. I am focused on understanding the past as it came to the present. Understanding the present reliably is fundamental in trying to look forward. I look into the future conceptually, not with numbers. I use my head, my own simple calculations to find my own way.

“Once upon a time, long ago”

The 1950s in Canada. I was in those old pictures. It was an easy time, where safe was taken for granted. But those times did not test us, who we really are. Our patience was not tested, our tolerance for people who were in different pictures. That we never saw.

No cell phones. No jet planes to Toronto for the weekend, just because we could. Rather, we went trout fishing with our fathers. If lucky, our mothers packed some devilled egg sandwiches. No fast food, no going out to eat as a lifestyle.

Different times. Unreal times. The same is simple and easy. Negotiating different is complex and tough.

I am glad to have had that start. But do not want to move back to that neighbourhood.

The Futility of it All

It’s a big, complex problem, these Three Horsemen. Surrounded by blame and finger-pointing.

The Three Horsemen are very much linked and intertwined with the three ponies. But most people cannot hold them all together at once in their heads. They tend to take them on one at a time, in isolation. With a disconnect. Is each of these Horsemen / ponies too much on its own? Is the combination of all six too overwhelming, too complex? Perhaps too disturbing.

Vic is saying, “The other problems are much more complex than GW. If society can’t deal with something as clearcut as GW, where there is only one source to deal with (the fossil fuel industry), then how could society possibly deal with the bigger picture.” My response is that we cannot deal with even small problems because we are paralyzed by our infighting.

We are programmed to focus on ourselves, others get what’s left. It takes work and determination to continue to chose others over us, especially the nebulous, communal us. That work soon gets tedious. We are easily distracted. We lose ground. Altruism gets thin on the ground. We go to where we don’t want to be. Seemingly unable to help the ‘us’.

Mary Apps tells me several friends have expressed dismay over each of The Three Horsemen (and the three ponies), that governments are not doing more. Vic, very much so. Mary thinks that we (our older generation) grew up with the assumption governments would do the right thing – if the right party got in power. And if not, we complain in some generally accepted fashion and return to the business of day-to-day life.

These days, that’s universally accepted grandchildren talk => schools, activities. But very little discussion about the world we are leaving them. Other than the odd lament.

Mary reminded me that our children are busily pre-occupied with raising a family, providing, immediate pressing concerns. With little time to talk with the other adult in the room (if there is one). And little opportunity to engage other adults philosophically => maybe no time, maybe those people do not exist. Does anybody remember those days?

Mary continues. Some of the older generation is full of dismay that their hourglass has almost run out; they do not have enough time or energy to dig in, to do the work to the extent needed to know for themselves. For some this is genuine, for others a convenient crutch, that allows them to let other think for them, to stick with their life-long ideology.

This is on us. Our generation.

That’s what Vic says, anyway. For me, it’s not that simple. See us in Appendix 1.

I reckon this is not on anyone. Just plain human nature. To take whatever plenty there is. I don’t blame anyone, including China; I am not a hypocrite.

Carbon Taxes

When money gets taken out of people’s pockets against their will, resistance is inevitable. Carbon Taxes are the lightning rod for GW/CC. They are embittering.

Before we get into this, I have one question: If these taxes were removed, would the whining about CC stop? What do you think? I expect not, because I see the complaining as part of an ideology of inherently wanting things to stay the same. And as part of that ideology, nothing new is happening. Removing the carbon taxes will not remove the entrenched embitterment.

I have no opinion on whether there should be a carbon tax, or not. I do not see it as an effective deterrent to using fossil fuels. Middle-class and upper-class people, who burn most of the fossil fuels, will pay whatever price and keep driving, etc. Albeit with more complaints.

Glenn emphasized that it’s only poor people who may be forced to curtail even essential driving because of the high cost of fuel. Poor people may get a lump sum payment down the road, but that does not help if they have lost their job because they could not put petrol in the tank.

I prefer policy, and incentives to taxes.

Nonetheless, I don’t mind paying taxes. I like what they provide: education, health care, roads, parks, fire fighting and policing. Some people whine about taxes, often people who have a good life and can afford to pay their way.

The Carbon Tax is just another tax.

The next federal election in Canada is going to be about climate change. The Conservative platform will include the withdrawal of the federal requirement for a carbon tax. Back to those young people. Do you think they will vote for this? The Conservative Party ideology is alienating young people. Every day, old people get removed from the voters list treadmill and young people step on. It’s a changing world, no longer a place for feet in concrete.

The Conservative Party of Canada seems to be focused on a return the past (that never really was). Meanwhile, the temperature keeps going up. And there is no going back. Even if we achieved what they call net-zero, the temperature would rise a bit over the next decade (the lag) and then remain where it was at that time. To decrease the temperature, CO₂ would have to be removed from the atmosphere; not going to happen on any scale.

Bob Dylan: “The world is a changing.”

Whether you like it or not. And we must keep up. Standing still no longer works; going backwards never did.

More on the Carbon Tax in Appendix 4.

Nuclear Power

I do not attempt to develop plans and policies. Leaving that to bigger brains. While I evaluate technologies, I do not promote them. I am wandering outside that boundary briefly to talk about nuclear power. I see it as the only practical option available right now that can step in for fossil fuels in a huge comprehensive way. Without big detractors. It has the scope and capacity. It is proven. It operates night and day. Battery dreamtime not needed. I am not pushing nuclear power. Just saying it’s the most obvious thing to me.

For nuclear power to happen, the focus for contrary finger-pointing must be taken away by:

·        Retiring old reactors before their best-before date. People need to feel the folks in charge are on their side.

·        Doing everything reasonable to ensure health and safety. Doubling down.

·        Implementing up front, comprehensive, safe, secure storage facilities for the so-called spent fuel. Which is still highly radioactive and will be so for decades. End the temporary swimming pool band-aids. Two native bands in Ontario recently stepped up as possible hosts for a deep underground storage in The Canadian Shield.

Make it known up front that there will be huge costs, with cost over-runs beyond that.

At the current rates of consumption, the planet’s economically accessible uranium resources could last about 200 years. Presently, nuclear reactors generate abut 10% of the electricity in the world. About 60% comes from fossil fuels. The expected service life of a nuclear reactor is about 50 years. If nuclear capacity was increased to 40%, the uranium resource would be consumed in those 50 years. Accordingly, over the next 50 years, nuclear could be used to displace half of the fossil fuels now used to generate electrical power.

Worldwide, about 40% of fossil fuel use is for electrical power generation. Considering this, consumption of the total uranium resource over the next 50 years would reduce worldwide fossil fuel use by about 20%. Not that big a dent, its it?

The number of reactors needed, four times the present number, is doable.

There is a lot of momentum on electric vehicles. World-wide, fossil fuels supply 84% of the world’s total energy and transportation uses 25% of total world energy. So, about 20% of fossil fuels are used for transportation. Comparing this 20%, to the 40% above, we can conclude that if all transportation was converted to electricity, the amount of electricity generated would have to increase by about 50%. Where is this going to come from?

Its easy to talk about the possibilities of the nuclear age. But when you put numbers to it, the scope pops up limited. Like so many other resources, we do not have enough uranium to take us very far. And we begin to see just how difficult it would be to displace most of the current fossil fuel use.

Some people have high hopes for fusion power. It has the potential to be a long-term energy source. But the probability of it becoming workable within the time frame we need it shrinks every year, and the likelihood of its viability was low in the first place.

Leaving Thoughts

First.

It’s simple math. (Population growth) X (increasing consumption) => many troubles.

Population growth marches to its own drums. Religions complicate and interfere.

Curtailing consumption will prove impossible (until a shortage does what we are unwilling to do).

Second.

We are getting sucked into the mentality of contact professional sports: two sides, one must win, at the expense of the other loosing. And the losers get left behind. This is being led by our politicians. No statesmen in sight. Cocks and bulldogs. Constant whining and theatre by those not in power. Indifference by the ones who are in power. But it is not them, as individuals. They are just vehicles for us. We are not equipped to solve even small problems because we would sooner fight amongst ourselves; our precious ideologies must prevail, because we are so right that our will must be imposed on others.

Third

Most of us are walking / talking contradictions. We are concerned, but not that concerned. We readily blame others, while not seeing ourselves.

Fourth.

Something from Vic: “There’s no possibility to reverse GW and its effects – only dampen or arrest it. The longer we wait to act, the higher the temp will climb before it is stabilized, and the more consequential the impact on humans and our ecosystem.”

Fifth.

To folks that are worried about your money being spent on global warming. Not much is happening. That’s frustrating the hell out of Vic. But that’s our do-little reality. And it will continue. Little is going to happen. Because our money is our god. We aren’t paying those damn carbon taxes. Don’t fret, we are not going to do much, other than pretend. Your money is safe in your wallet. Your grandkids might not thank you though.

At least my grandkids might recognize that I was fully aware of the truth. No pretending, no dodging the truth. But continued consuming anyway.

Sixth.

If you are equipped to do the work to own your own truth, I recommend it to you. Then you can go beyond opinions and ‘beliefs’, to knowing for yourself.

Seventh.

Fear distorts, biases, polarizes, entrenches, and paralyzes. That paralysis makes it all futile. We can’t get there from here. So, we pretend it’s not happening, we minimize, rationalize and blame others.

Eighth.

Do you choose love, or hate? Everything follows from that. Fear gets hate.

Appendix 1 – Sitting on Sidings with Vic Shantora

Vic: When you say, “human condition”, what do you mean? When Ken and you say ‘sustainability”, what do you mean? I take sustainability to mean sustainability of the ecosystem – of which humans are one piece of the action.”

Blackie to Vic: Ken and I are talking about the sustainability of our human lifestyle. By human condition, I mean such as we are, how we think. That makes us do what we do. Love or hate. Take it all now. I am not talking about maintaining the environment as it is. I realize some of that is going to get lost along the way.

 

Vic: “I think it’s important for our generation to acknowledge that we are the cause of ’14- to 30-year-olds’ angst. Our generation, more than any previous, caused GW. We discovered the cause – fossil fuels. We did all the heavy lifting to understand the science. We have the intellectual capacity, the smarts, resources, technology, money – everything but the political will to address the problem. And not just GW, but every other part of the ecosystem – nothing is sustainable anymore – thus the march towards the cliff (like lemmings).”

Blackie to Vic:  Our generation set this in motion. But we are not entirely responsible, because our kids are continuing our lifestyle. When the fingers get pointed, its them too. They have our same human nature. That’s the rub which makes a fix impossible.

 

Vic: “Where did our kids learn their behaviour? I would say, from us - nice 2 story home, two cars in the driveway, winter trip to Disneyland, maybe a summer vacation in Europe for the luckier ones, feeling a little chilly - turn up the heat, too hot outside - turn on the AC.That's what they know, nothing more, unless something was taught in school maybe. If it was, it was probably weak, didn't get reinforced or ingrained into their thinking. If they watch the news - which I doubt - they hear Justin and the Premiers telling them that they are working on the problem. Why would they think that they need to be proactive in demanding change when CC is only now beginning to manifest itself? It doesn’t appear as a direct threat to their wellbeing. The fossil fuel industry tells them environmental controls will be very expensive. Nobody is telling them what the cost of inaction is.  That's why my view is that it's all on us, our generation.”

Blackie to Vic: Our kids have access to information, just as we do. They have bright minds, no longer deferring to us. They have choices, the same ones we do. They are one of us, no longer special protectorates. They can know, just as we can know. Yet we all keep living the good life on the train. Any of us can get off at any time. But very few do.

Vic: “‘Not looking that great’ is an understatement – history will pillory our generation! The climate things you are dismissing are ignored, understated, or downplayed by naysayers funded by the fossil fuel industry and the politicians they bought off.”

Blackie to Vic: You seem to think if we don’t do something soon, we are doomed. Well, we do not know about that factually, one way or another. Even the science is thin and speculative. While the world will be changed as we know it, the world will survive and heal itself, after the disease of us is eliminated.

Vic: “How about concepts like tackling the biggest sources of pollution as a first priority, polluter pay principle, rejecting (taxpayer funded) subsidies as a way of influencing behaviour.”

Vic: “The heat dome in Vancouver was not just about discomfort – over 500 people died. I’m surprised you don’t make any reference to that. And not only that, hundreds more ended up in hospital but survived, still more had to puff on their inhalers, still more were suffering from asthma so bad, they couldn’t go to work (call that lost productivity). When the cost of all that is added up, I’ll bet it was significant and it was all on the healthcare system, already struggling from covid, and all paid for by the taxpayer!”

Blackie to Vic: Yes, but few of us see behind the veil.

Vic: “What about Fort Myers Beach? Hurricane Ian. The highest storm surge in southwest Florida in the last 150 years: 13.8 feet.”

Blackie to Vic: Yes, Fort Myers was nasty. But one extreme hurricane does not make a continuous trend. One really rotten apple falling off a tree does not necessarily mean the whole orchard is going bad.

 Appendix 2 – Truth Seeking

My Early Trajectory and Losing a Friend

I am going to tell this story because it’s how things often go in exchanges between passionate people. Situations like this are uncomfortable, but there are lessons. Things others might find useful. Before I die, here’s the tombstone.

Shortly along my path, a friend sent me a video by a so-called ‘expert’ on GW/CC. In retrospect, one of those talking heads, with dubious real qualifications. Used to do tobacco stuff. Slick. Turning half-truths, misinformation and somethings wrong (it’s the sun, for example) into a comforting, fairy tale. I did not know any better at the time. I trusted my friend. I was vulnerable, gullible. Got sucked in. My friend told me he was impressed to see me engage new information and change my mind so readily; intelligent, I was. That state lasted maybe a year.

Eventually, I wanted to own my truth, not borrow it from somebody else. I did the work. Including four undergraduate climate change courses at UBC. I began to do my own calculations. To check and verify. To give perspective, to separate the big from the small. I soon realized that global warming was real, after all.

And reported back. My friend was not impressed by my U turn. The more I progressed, the wider the gap between us. He continued to send me things, recycled from others, never his own stuff / work. Initially, I engaged the material he sent, and returned my observations and comments. Mostly telling him what I saw as gaps, bad logic, mistakes, etc. And I explained what I saw as the truth. I sent him blogs I was writing on climate change topics, some 100 of them. I have the impression that he seldom engaged anything that I sent. Because despite stuff I saw as undeniable facts, his responses were mostly yet another thing to the contrary. In an unchanging vein. I came to realize his material was coming from what I consider to be tribal internet sites, from people biased against GW/CC.

We talked about all this. He sees me as intransigent. I see him as a bright capable person who will not do any of his own work. Rather he turns stuff from others into strong statements of his personal ‘beliefs’. We now agree that we are 180 degrees apart on climate change and that is unlikely to change. In fact, we are 180 degrees apart on almost everything except our past friendship memories and Christmas cards. We both understand that this process has put a big hole in our historic friendship.

This type of interaction, with its associated tension is all too common. For me, and for others. Human nature in action. We all have some level of intransigence, bias, and intellectual laziness. If we really do seek the truth, we must lose all three.

Proverbs. “As iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another”. But beware of the sparks, they can burn. Indeed here. Nonetheless, our interaction sharpened me. Forced me to consider, evaluate, know and understand what was in my own head. And it was an important window into other people who see logic / facts / science differently than I do.

One of the lessons here is => what is more important, our people or our passions?

Sometimes, it’s a balancing act. For this to work, there must be a balance in play and there must be weights placed on both sides. By weights, I don’t mean words, opinions and beliefs, I mean WORK. Work to identify what is real, what is true. Only truth is worth getting worked up about. One person must engage the other person. And both must be themselves, not somebody else. When I disagree with someone, I try to keep the person separate from what I hear them saying. I try to respect the person, while I hold in tension what I see as shades of nonsense. This tension-holding is easier for me when there is WORK on both sides.

Glenn said to me: “If you really believe something passionately and the consequences are dire, whether is religion, politics or CC, it’s a lot harder not to get worked up.” My reply: None of these things have dire consequences, certainly not politics. Things come and go. We have notions the ship can be turned on a dime. We call those notions policy. Just illusions. What is dire is deliberately killing people, as a lifestyle. Now that’s worth getting worked up about. The others stuff is not.

Hank Williams: “I’ll never get out of this world alive.”

Our passions need constant tailoring and tempering. Our friendships are worth some work. Friendship over ideology. Ideology tests friend ships.

Doing the Work

Mark has looked at some big-scale physical science. Starting with how light speed is measured and its affects on a body approaching the speed of light. Then sea level rise, including gravitational effects. Followed by the solar system. What makes it work, holds it together, in place. He has done his own gravity calculations, for various planets / stars. In an Excel spreadsheet, like I do. He soon found his results at odds with some of the information in the published literature. Mark attended BCIT; he is bright and determined, ready to self-educate. He digs deep, doing the work to own his own truth. If Mark can do this, many others could do some of their own work, if they want it enough.

Being Heard

Some who are skeptical / denying / contrary complain that they are not being heard, they are dismissed / not represented in the big talk. When I have engaged people like this, mostly one of two things happen:

·        The back and forth soon stops. It seems that its important for them to be heard. But when they see that I have contrary thoughts, they are reluctant to continue.

·        A pattern much like that above gets set up. They send me material recycled from others, I read and comment. I send them my blogs, my own work. No apparent engagement.

I see some entrenchment, some closed minds. Some ‘I am right’ situations.

Surveys

Temperatures are rising and have been rising for many years. The evidence is there to see, it is real and genuine. An evident truth.

Yet it is dodged, unacknowledged, to just outright denied, by some people.

The results of a recent worldwide survey by folks at Yale University show 13% of Canadian respondents either thought climate change was part of a natural cycle or completely dismissed its existence. Of the big emitters, only the USA, Saudi Arabia and Australia showed a stronger contingent of climate skeptics and deniers. The study did not include China, Russia, or Iran.

Natural Climate Cycles

The people who think that climate change is part of the several natural climate cycles. Maybe they have not looked deeply enough, or objectively. The truth is there to see if they really want to know.

What Gets in the Road of Truth?

Lack of available information. Engagement of misinformation. Identification with tribal information strings. Strong political ideology, where one perspective is right and everything else is wrong.

The main thing that gets in the road of truth, that I see loud and clear, is intellectual laziness. We are smart enough, but what good is that if we won’t put our intelligence to work. It is easier to let others do my thinking. And parrot them as my “beliefs”.  I do that on some things. But not for GW/CC. For this, I want to own what I believe, not rent it. That’s why I do the work.

Biases get in the road of truth.

At least two people told me that while they would like to understand what others are taking about, they were reluctant to get in too deep because they were worried that there may be money involved to fix climate change if it really is happening. Inherently, their money. So, they weave and bob, concern about their money blinding them to pursing the truth. Intelligent, capable people, living a good life, likely in the top 20 to10 % of the population for wealth in Canada. It seems that the more money you have, the more it biases / blinds / closes you.

Some are suspicious of big organizations, especially universities. They do not trust academic published material, even though it is thoroughly peer-reviewed. Rather they rely on their internet tribal threads.

Me

I do have biases, mainly social. Against hate, war, political heroes, prejudice, and people who treat others badly. And I have trouble understanding intelligent people who let others do their thinking for them yet put strong opinions forward as the truth. I do lots of my own work. They are just as smart, or smarter than me. When they recycle what I see as essentially nonsense from others, I get impatient. These biases do not interfere with my look at science and data. They are not present in the calculations that I do.

I do not associate with any political party. You can try to put a label on me, but you just might miss the target.

I have some illusions. The Toronto Maple Leafs, for one.

I am most comfortable in the grey of confusion. Sorting through inconsistencies. Looking for patterns that fit the science. When I see someone that is so sure they got it right, I get checking.

Someone may have a different truth about climate change than me. If they have done their own work, then it is indeed their own truth. They own it. I accept and respect that. But if they have not done the work, are borrowing their thinking from others, and letting their political biases think for them, that’s another story.

How do we get close enough to the truth? 

It takes work. Our own work. If you are not equipped to do your own work and / or don’t have the time, you might carefully pick someone you can trust.  But always be mindful that they may have some, or all of it, wrong. Be ready to look around other places.

Yet warry of tribal stuff. Things like:

·        Friends of Science (out of Calgary, Alberta).

·        Watts up with that?

·        Talking head videos.

Some ones I tend to trust:

·        IPCC reports

·        NOAA (USA government)

·        Skeptical Science

·        Carbon Brief

·        The Guardian

Maybe ResearchGate but be sure your sinuses are clear.

Appendix 3 – Sources of Information and Peer Review

Just the other day, I was asked to comment on an article from the Manhattan Contrarian, published in Watts Up With That? The author points out some valid things about the impracticality of storing the vast amounts of electricity need to make wind and solar a credible option to fossil fuels. Fine, I agree. But I got stopped by this: “…storage proposals that any moron can easily see will not work.” The use of the word “moron” makes this guy stink. I flushed him right there. Its obvious to me that there was no peer review, by anyone, including the publisher Watts Up With That? This publisher is a homing site for climate skeptics and deniers. It’s an example of what I call ‘tribal information’.

I was sent something from this realm. A technical paper by some mathematics professors. Published in ResearchGate, generally well regarded for a reliable source of information. These math professors were complaining that the climate scientists were not using enough math and they were going to show the climate scientists that they had it all wrong. And these math people had it right. I looked at the paper. There were two glaring errors. One a simple logic error. And a scientific fundamental error. For completeness, I sent the paper to one of my previous professors. He found a third error in the deep technical, where these math folks thought they knew it all. How did this garbage get published? Does ResearchGate not have peer review? If so, it’s little more than a wink and a nod from like-minded people.

My take is any peer review is better than none. I hope that there are less examples of publishing bias in the hard-core scientific journals. There is always our sense of smell.

Appendix 4 – The Carbon Tax in Canada

BC was the first province in Canada to have a Carbon Tax, brought in by a conservative, free enterprise government about 20 years ago. It was continued by the next conservative government and the subsequent NDP governments. In BC, money collected as carbon tax is sent out to residents of BC, according to their income, with poorer people receiving more. It is essentially a vehicle for income redistribution, with the intent of discouraging fossil fuel use (good luck on that one).

At the most recent convention of the Conservative Party of Canada, there was a motion that “climate change is real” and “willing to act”. Defeated by about 54% of the delegates.

In the most recent federal election, 2021, 34% of the votes were for Conservative candidates. Combining 54% of the delegates with 34% of the voters, we might conclude that about 18% of the people in Canada do not believe that climate change is real. There will be others who are not voting Conservatives.  Let’s make that 20%. Sorta like the 13% result in the Yale poll discussed near the beginning of this thing. I know this is out there. Its headshaking: illogical, intellectually lazy, stubborn ideology, considering the obvious temperature data and documented facts.

I do not care if someone thinks we should do absolutely nothing about climate change. Totally fine with me. But I do care about intellectual integrity which readily acknowledges a reality. And I do care when ideology biases and blinds people.

A few weeks ago, the present leader of the Conservative Party of Canada came to British Columbia. He is the spokesman for of the 18%. While in BC, he invited our Premier to axe the Carbon Tax. That’s BCs business, not his.

With some politicians, facts are irrelevant. Its more about bias and circus.

Blackie Manana

The End of this Blog